“Brownie, you’re doing a heck of a job,” were among George W. Bush’s most famous last words. (Remember Mission Accomplished?) Trump risks pulling a Katrina with his messaging on Coronavirus.
- “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!” – Trump, Feb. 24
- “Low Ratings Fake News MSDNC (Comcast) & @CNN are doing everything possible to make the Caronavirus look as bad as possible, including panicking markets, if possible. Likewise their incompetent Do Nothing Democrat comrades are all talk, no action. USA in great shape!” – Trump, Feb. 26.
At best Coronavirus is “only” like the flu. I put only in quotes because man a lot of people talking about coronavirus are moronic and glib. When people say that Coronavirus is only like the flu, I wonder if they’ve ever had a 104 degree temperature.
The flu is awful, and in the 2018-2019 flu season, 61,200 people died. Are we prepared for an additional 60,000+ to die from a new strain of flu?
How many Americans might die due to Coronavirus?
61,200 people died of the flu in 2018-2019 flu season.
The death rate from coronavirus is 10-20 times that of the flu.
There will be 600,000+ American deaths if coronavirus spreads like the flu. That’s more than all American deaths in WWII.
Some estimates, coronavirus has a 40-70% contagion rate. I hope that number lowers!
If early estimates are accurate, as many as 1.5 to 5 million Americans could die from the Coronavirus.
How to Avoid Causing a Panic While Telling the Truth
The early estimated of coronavirus could be wrong. Maybe coronavirus wont’ spread. Maybe it’s not as deadly as early estimated show.
Maybe!
But which side of the messaging bet would you take?
Tell people everything is OK, and then the world collapses.
Tell people to be prepared (here’s a guide) and that you’re ON IT!
Coronavirus was a slam dunk for Trump,
“This is why we need border security and domestic manufacturing!”
Instead, Democrats are taking the high ground on trade, with Elizabeth Warren tweeting: “We should be taking action right now to mitigate the supply chain impacts of the outbreak. The government should be helping American manufacturers find alternative sources for parts and production and helping American exporters find new purchasers.”
We should be taking action right now to mitigate the supply chain impacts of the outbreak. The government should be helping American manufacturers find alternative sources for parts and production and helping American exporters find new purchasers.
— Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) February 25, 2020
Instead he tweeted some Bush / “heckuva job” b.s. Coronavirus is Trump’s Katrina.
Trump’s great strengths include pretending he never said something that he did say, so people will forget all of this.
Unless coronavirus hits as hard as some very smart people think, in which case no one will ignore the millions of people overfilling hospital beds.
While I have been watching this entire situation, I haven’t gotten food in, much like many people did in 1999 as we crossed over to 2000 not knowing how our computer systems would manage things etc.
I figured I would wait till the virus was reported somewhere close to where I live then take precautions.
Then I started hearing:
1. China makes the majority of our prescriptions
2. Our supply chain is very limited.
Then, I found out that we have a person 15 minutes from where we live who had the virus and was in Wuhan, China.
Now this is becoming much more real. It is now time to focus and do something. In speaking to friends and family today, 1/2 think I am crazy.
First thing I did today is order all prescriptions that I could and some I only use occasionally even though I am not out of anything.
Next will be a Costco run and an Amazon order.
And I will keep ordering prescriptions every 3 weeks.
I’ve been feeling this way about him for a week or two now.
Trump’s response to this leaves me doubtful I’ll vote for him in November. Seems to be more concerned about how this will affect come November, than paying attention to the ugly futures that this CV can manifest.
Maybe he has people around him not relaying him the best info on the issue. Who may not have his best interest and want him out of the WH as soon as possible. But, that’s in the past. You’ve covered that at length before (destefano).
Maybe the parasite stress hypothesis will still work in his favor.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5098626/
Sidenote: Does the EU survive this?
But I personally feel like being somewhere else other than a voting booth come November.
Really? And who the hell are you going to cast a vote for, then?
Exactly! Trump likely SAVED us by cutting off flights to China early on – Dems were attacking him for that but we would have more cases much faster if that hadn’t happened.
So why isn’t he cutting flights form Italy, Korea, and EU?
President Trump has an amazing track record of success and being correct, often well in advance of when everyone else (who is honest) grudgingly figures it out and acknowledges it. Of course, no one and nothing is perfect, but my money is with our MAGA POTUS. BUT that said, people taking immediate precautions (I took them years ago) will never do themselves harm by prepping for a rainy day because no matter what we think, we never really know…
Indoor Humidification as Strong Partial Defense Against COVID-19
Daniel A. Hess
Researcher, Rockville, MD
February 26, 2020
Overview
There is ample research showing that viral outbreaks similar to COVID-19 are strongly correlated with ambient humidity levels. Cold and flu generally peak during the winter months in temperate zones, when indoor humidity is low. Notably, influenza and cold viruses tend to survive far longer in the air when the ambient humidity is low than when the ambient humidity is high. Further, there is strong evidence that the severity of flu-related respiratory infection is similarly humidity dependent, as lower humidity leads to more severe viral respiratory infection and greater likelihood of death. Influenza and COVID-19 are very similar in that death typically results from pneumonia that leads to acute respiratory failure.
Thus, indoor humidification, particularly to 50% relative humidity or higher, is seen as a strong partial defense against COVID-19, by two different mechanisms. First, by reducing the amount of time that virus particles remain infectious in the air, humidification is expected to substantially reduce R0, the reproductive number that represents outbreak contagiousness. Second, by reducing severity of respiratory infection, mortality rates from COVID-19, currently estimated at 2.3%, may be substantially reduced.
Indoor humidification is readily available almost everywhere and can be achieved by common humidifiers and even by boiling water in impoverished areas where humidifiers are not available. Available research strongly suggests that humidification in homes, hospitals, schools and other public areas will dramatically reduce both COVID-19 transmission and COVID-19 mortality among those who become infected. Even in areas where medical infrastructure becomes overwhelmed during pandemic conditions, indoor humidification will remain widely available as a defense against COVID-19 infection and severity.
Evidence so far is strong that COVID-19 exhibits climate and seasonal characteristics similar to influenzas and the common cold. By mimicking the environmental conditions of the summer months through indoor humidification, it is believed that COVID-19 incidence and severity will be sharply reduced.
Indoor humidification, especially to 50% relative humidity or higher, is likely to emerge as a robust tool that will be widely adopted as a defense against COVID-19.
I. Virus particles remain active longer in dry air than in humid air: citations
1. Noti et al. (2013) High Humidity Leads to Loss of Infectious Influenza Virus from Simulated Coughs. PLoS One. 2013; 8(2): e57485.
2. Tamerius JD, et al. (2013) Environmental predictors of seasonal influenza epidemics across temperate and tropical climates. PLoS Pathog 9:e1003194, and erratum 2013 Nov;9(11).
3. Shaman J, Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Grenfell BT, Lipsitch M (2010) Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States. PLoS Biol 8(2): e1000316.
4. Shaman J, Goldstein E, Lipsitch M (2011) Absolute humidity and pandemic versus epidemic influenza. Am J Epidemiol 173: 127–135
5. Lowen AC, Mubareka S, Steel J, Palese P (2007) Influenza virus transmission is dependent on relative humidity and temperature. PLoS Pathog 3(10): 1470–1476.
6. Schaffer FL, Soergel ME, Straube DC (1976) Survival of airborne influenza virus: effects of propagating host, relative humidity, and composition of spray fluids, Arch Virol. 51: 263–273.
7. Hanley BP, Borup B (2010) Aerosol influenza transmission risk contours: A study of humid tropics versus winter temperate zone. Virol J 7: 98.
8. Yang W, Marr LC (2011) Dynamics of airborne influenza A viruses indoors and dependence on humidity. PloS One 6(6): e21481.
9. Shaman and Kohn (2009) Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality. PNAS March 3, 2009 106 (9) 3243-3248
II. Susceptibility to respiratory infection is greater when ambient humidity is low than when ambient humidity is high: citations
1. Kudo et al. Low ambient humidity impairs barrier function and innate resistance against influenza infection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019.
2. Makinen et al. Cold temperature and low humidity are associated with increased occurrence of respiratory tract infections. Respiratory Medicine, Volume 103, Issue 3, March 2009, Pages 456-462
3. Eccles R (2002) An explanation for the seasonality of acute upper respiratory tract viral infections. Acta Otolaryngol 122:183–191.
4. Iwasaki A, Pillai PS (2014) Innate immunity to influenza virus infection. Nat Rev Immunol 14:315–328.
5. Chen X, et al. (2018) Host immune response to influenza a virus infection. Front Immunol 9:320.
6. Taubenberger JK, Morens DM (2008) The pathology of influenza virus infections. Annu Rev Pathol 3:499–522.
7. Bustamante-Marin XM, Ostrowski LE (2017) Cilia and mucociliary clearance. Cold Spring Harb Perspect Biol 9:a028241.
8. Oozawa H, et al. (2012) Effect of prehydration on nasal mucociliary clearance in low relative humidity. Auris Nasus Larynx 39:48–52.
9. Kudo E, et al. (2019) Low ambient humidity impairs barrier function, innate resistance against influenza infection. NCBI BioProject. Available at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ bioproject/PRJNA528197. Deposited March 20, 2019.
III. Applicability to COVID-19
The emergence of COVID-19 during winter in temperate zones strongly suggests that COVID-19 is similar to flu and cold viruses in its correlation with ambient humidity levels.
COVID-19 outbreaks to date have overwhelmingly been in temperate zones where indoor humidity in winter is low. To date, major outbreaks have occurred in China, Korea, Japan, Italy and Iran. Each of these outbreaks occurred in a temperate country in the midst of winter, where indoor humidity would be expected to be quite low. There are few cases and no known major outbreaks of COVID-19 in tropical and subtropical regions. Notably South America, Africa, and the Indian subcontinent have few reported cases and (as far as the author is aware) no known cases of local transmission, suggesting that the warm and humid conditions in those regions hinders COVID-19.
Singapore, notably, had what appeared to be the beginning of a major outbreak of COVID-19 around February 14, 2020. Instead the incidence of new COVID-19 infection in Singapore has since diminished dramatically and there have been no COVID-19 fatalities in that country. Most patients in Singapore who tested positive for COVID-19 have already recovered, as of this writing. This favorable outcome strongly suggests to the author that the warm and humid climate of Singapore has been protective against COVID-19 transmission and severity.
The environmental conditions of Singapore could be substantially replicated through indoor humidification, especially to 50% relative humidity or higher, and in this way major reductions in COVID-19 transmission and severity can be achieved in other countries.
IV. Preparing for Seasonal Re-Emergence
As noted, evidence available so far strongly suggests that COVID-19 contagiousness and severity are strongly dependent on ambient humidity levels, and thus COVID-19 occurrence is expected to diminish during the summer months.
However, re-emergence of COVID-19 during the winter of 2020-2021 is likely as indoor humidity levels in the Northern Hemisphere again drop. The author hopes that a COVID-19 vaccine will be available and in wide distribution by that time. This may require a reduction in the regulatory hurdles that slow the development of vaccines in the United States and elsewhere.
Author may be contacted at: danhess00@yahoo.com and by phone at (301) 704-6859
Watch it in real time! Coronavirus is following dry air!
Hey, Cerno! Love ya dude, but I haven’t seen you tweet the most amazing thing about Novel Coronavirus:
It is following dry indoor air around the world. I have been watching this thing intensely in the last month. It is literally waxing and waning in severity in response to dry indoor air.
The amazing observation, to those who are paying attention, is how much better things got in Hubei province once a mass of humid air came over the area.
New York City and DC, London and Paris are all coincidentally protected at the moment by a humid air mass, but if and when there is a very cold/dry air mass in any of those places, just watch them get wrecked.
A million people have a million BS medical theories and everyone is spouting their nonsense. Yet virologists at Yale have cracked the code regarding viral respiratory infection, and it is humidity.
Kudo et al. Low ambient humidity impairs barrier function and innate resistance against influenza infection. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019.
https://www.pnas.org/content/116/22/10905
The somewhat sad thing is that this nice team of virologists at Yale who made this discovery are low energy and lack the charisma to break their message out. A random church lady going on and on about essential oils has more salesmanship.
Simply look at where there are new breakouts and look at the previous week’s weather. Where it had been cold and dry, a new breakout is coming. Where it had been warm and damp, a lid is kept on Coronavirus.
Everyone can help themselves by simply humidifying their home or work area. Don’t even need a humidifier. A pot of boiling water will do it.
The Yale team discovered that respiratory viral infections dramatically improved (with much lower mortality) at 50% humidity than at 10% and 20% humidity.
The whole reason winter is dangerous is because indoor air is often dangerously dry after warming cold outdoor air.
The target by the Yale team was not some absurdly high humidity level where dampness is a problem. It was simply 50% humidity. It will be very interesting to see if this discovery gets out.