Mike Cernovich

An admixture of mindset and media

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How to Think about Coronavirus

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America just held a nationwide IQ test. Did you notice it?

Everyone who has said about coronavirus that, “It’s just the flu,” failed the IQ test. As did those who claim discussing coronavirus is “spreading panic.”

They are engaging in what Scott Adams calls Loserthink. Read his book here.

Low probability of certain death = “Freakout” is Rational.

You will almost certainly not die from the coronavirus.

If the coronavirus contagion and death rates are accurate, between one and three million Americans could die.

When you have a low risk of a pandemic with a death count exceeding the total number of Americans who died in World War II, you take precautions.

Reasonable minds can differ as to what those precautions are.

But if you’re not thinking about coronavirus in terms of fat tail risk, you’re not even allowed to be part of the conversation.

  • “Tail risk is the additional risk of an asset or portfolio of assets moving more than 3 standard deviations from its current price, above the risk of a normal distribution. … Tail risk is sometimes defined less strictly, as merely the risk (or probability) of rare events.”

You will almost certainly not die from the coronavirus. Do you buy some extra food / water?

Your car will almost certainly not be stolen. Do you lock it?

Your house will almost certainly never burn down in a fire. Do you have fire insurance?

Why it’s better to panic early: Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Yaneer Bar-Yam

https://youtu.be/e2Kga5HeAqk

“But 60,000 people die from the flu each year!”

Yes, and this is terrible.

I had no idea that seasonal flu deaths were that high. Did you? (Don’t lie. I bet you didn’t.)

Rather than use, “but 60,000 die from the flu,” as some sort of repudiation of coronavirus risk, isn’t the answer that we should care more about the flu.

You’re not checkmating anyone with that stat. You sound like an idiot. Or someone who is glib about human death.

If we as a society can prevent more people from dying of the flu, let’s have that conversation.

Math is hard.

Engineer Liz Specht did what engineers do – MATH!

Our hospitals aren’t prepared to handle the number of patients who catch coronavirus.

Read Specht’s entire thread on Twitter.

Here are some highlights:

  • The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc). 7/n
  • By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.) 9/n
  • Importantly, I cannot stress this enough: even if I’m wrong – even VERY wrong – about core assumptions like % of severe cases or current case #, it only changes the timeline by days or weeks. This is how exponential growth in an immunologically naïve population works. 22/n

Ms. Specht assumes a closed system, so her numbers are likely on the high side.

But she is also creating a starting point of how to think about the coronavirus.

“It’s just the flu, bro,” is f-cking moronic. Shut the f-ck up. You don’t know anything.

Any rational discussion of coronavirus looks at the worst-case numbers / secondary effects of millions of sick Americans.

And then you start using an OODA loop / find ways to open the system.

1. Observation. How many cases of coronavirus are there? Where are these cases originating? Who Is getting sick? How many are dying?

2. Orientation. Are the number of cases of coronavirus increasing? Then what? Are they increasing? Now what?

3. Decision making. Make a rational decision based on what you’re observation and how you’re orientating yourself based on these observations.

4. Action. This is where leadership matters.

Solutions to a Coronavirus Crisis.

We need “right to try” laws.

We need virtual doctor visits.

We need some form of “doctors lite.”

You don’t need an MD and $500,000 in medical school debt along with 4 years of a residency to treat patients with coronavirus.

We need vision and leadership.

https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1236373223828148224

If your contribution to the coronavirus discussion is some form of “It’s only flu,” please go away. You’re not helping.

Let the adults figure out what to do next.

And please don’t rely on media outlets to understand the math.

 

Coronavirus is Trump’s Katrina

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“Brownie, you’re doing a heck of a job,” were among George W. Bush’s most famous last words. (Remember Mission Accomplished?) Trump risks pulling a Katrina with his messaging on Coronavirus.

  • “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!” – Trump, Feb. 24
  • “Low Ratings Fake News MSDNC (Comcast) & @CNN are doing everything possible to make the Caronavirus look as bad as possible, including panicking markets, if possible. Likewise their incompetent Do Nothing Democrat comrades are all talk, no action. USA in great shape!” – Trump, Feb. 26.

At best Coronavirus is “only” like the flu. I put only in quotes because man a lot of people talking about coronavirus are moronic and glib. When people say that Coronavirus is only like the flu, I wonder if they’ve ever had a 104 degree temperature.

The flu is awful, and in the 2018-2019 flu season, 61,200 people died. Are we prepared for an additional 60,000+ to die from a new strain of flu?

How many Americans might die due to Coronavirus?

61,200 people died of the flu in 2018-2019 flu season.

The death rate from coronavirus is 10-20 times that of the flu.

There will be 600,000+ American deaths if coronavirus spreads like the flu. That’s more than all American deaths in WWII.

Some estimates, coronavirus has a 40-70% contagion rate. I hope that number lowers!

If early estimates are accurate, as many as 1.5 to 5 million Americans could die from the Coronavirus.

How to Avoid Causing a Panic While Telling the Truth

The early estimated of coronavirus could be wrong. Maybe coronavirus wont’ spread. Maybe it’s not as deadly as early estimated show.

Maybe!

But which side of the messaging bet would you take?

Tell people everything is OK, and then the world collapses.

Tell people to be prepared (here’s a guide) and that you’re ON IT!

Coronavirus was a slam dunk for Trump,

“This is why we need border security and domestic manufacturing!”

Instead, Democrats are taking the high ground on trade, with Elizabeth Warren tweeting: “We should be taking action right now to mitigate the supply chain impacts of the outbreak. The government should be helping American manufacturers find alternative sources for parts and production and helping American exporters find new purchasers.”

Instead he tweeted some Bush / “heckuva job” b.s. Coronavirus is Trump’s Katrina.

Trump’s great strengths include pretending he never said something that he did say, so people will forget all of this.

Unless coronavirus hits as hard as some very smart people think, in which case no one will ignore the millions of people overfilling hospital beds.

P.S. Here Is how to prepare for coronavirus.

Who is Mike Cernovich?

How to Prepare for Coronavirus

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You almost certainly will not contract coronavirus, and that’s not why you should be FREAKING OUT about coronavirus. Let’s talk supply chains. (Or just scroll down for a shopping list.)

Coronavirus is already disrupting supply chains.

Apple announced supply chain issues, but that’s not a real concern except for the stock market (more on that, later)

America is completely dependent on China for prescription medication:

  • Last month, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission held a hearing on the United States’ growing reliance on China’s pharmaceutical products. The topic reminded me of a spirited discussion described in Bob Woodward’s book, Fear: Trump in the White House. In the discussion, Gary Cohn, then chief economic advisor to President Trump, argued against a trade war with China by invoking a Department of Commerce study that found that 97 percent of all antibiotics in the United States came from China. “If you’re the Chinese and you want to really just destroy us, just stop sending us antibiotics,” he said.

The source for that story is the CFR, which now looks pretty stupid. Their argument was that American should remain dependent on China. Big mistake.

Even if that 97% number is hysterical, the “real” number is high.

Yes, you’re going to see a shortage of prescription medication. (Although India may end up saving the day.)

What happens if thousands of truck drivers get the flu?

Your well-stocked grocery store’s most important area is “shipping and receiving.” You may have never seen this area unless you worked in retail. Each day dozens or more trailers of food arrive. These are brought to you by your friendly neighborhood truck drivers.

Without these daily deliveries, your shopping center 36 hours of food if a run on the store happens.

There was already a truck driver shortage, although this issue has been mitigated and new drivers can be trained relatively quickly.

In the short term, a food shortage is probable.

It won’t be a “Mad Max” scenario, but you may be forced to go days without a food resupply.

(Shelves in Italian cities are already empty.)

 

Shopping List for Coronavirus Prepping.

Think conceptually for a moment. If there’s a food shortage, you’re not going to be worried about your supply of reverse-seared rib eye. (Power outrages may mean such food would spoil.)

  • Big picture: You want cheap calories that are easy to store.

We have about 100 pounds of dry rice, which you can buy at Costco in the Mexican food section. It’s on the bottom shelf.

We also have dry oats, lentils, and canned tuna.

You’ll need water to reconstitute the dry goods, and you should have a 72 hour supply of water anyway.

Food list:

  • 50 pound bag of dry rice for every 3 people
  • 20 pound bag of dried lentil
  • 50 gallons of water
  • Spices for cooking
  • Coconut oil

Bonuses / extras:

If you have a propane grill, get an extra tank. You’ll be able to cook all of your food over a propane grill.

Mophie / charging batteries for your electronic devices. If there’s a power outage, you’ll need to be able to obtain access to information, and unless cell towers go out, too, your phone will suffice. Keep it charged with one of those portable power units. (I use this one.)

High lumens flashlight. Forget the Rambo fantasies. Most people don’t need an AR-15. You need a tactical flashlight. I recommend this one.

A high lumens flashlight will short-term blind an attacker.

I carry a high-lumens pen flashlight to every event.

A violent person who gets flashed in the eyes will be stunned momentarily.

This is a pretty good video showing that a flashlight is capable of much more than you imagined.

Do you need a generator for Coronavirus?

I don’t consider a generator a “must-have” unless you’re in a rural environment.

If you have the space and budget for one, a generator is a good buy.

In other words, a generator is a nice to have.

If you get a gas or diesel generator, you’ll need to store fuel. Fuel storage can present a storage hazard.

If you’re thinking about getting a generator, please do your homework.

Here are some generators.

Solar Vs Gas Generators for Prepping and Survival | Inergy Apex

Should you be “Freaking Out” About Coronavirus.

Yes. Yes you absolutely should be.

I want you to FREAK OUT about coronavirus, but my definition of that is limited to

 

Coronavirus Prepping vs. Hardcore Prepping

A lot of hardcore preppers will find this article and start nit-picking it, and they’ll be blocked.

This article isn’t for people who get decked out in 5.11 tacticool wear, open carry AR-15’s (even though that’s your right) and who hope the world ends because somehow they will do better in a Zombieworld. Trust me, the current timeline is as good as it gets.

Normal, professional people need to be prepared for Coronavirus.

There are some wonderful videos by normal, sane people on food storage and prepping.

You need to be ready.

If you want to go deeper in this world, check out Guildbrook Farm – Simple Sustainable Living.

Using Mylar Bags for Food Storage

What’s your best Coronavirus prepping tip?

Post a comment below!

About the author.

Who is Mike Cernovich?

 

 

 

Will Elizabeth Warren @ewarren Release Her Own NDA’s?

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NDA’s are back in the news, at least when those NDA’s concern Mike Bloomberg. But what about Elizabeth Warren’s NDAs? Oh she may not have one for herself, but her colleagues do, there are over 250 of them!

What if I told you that Congressmen settled over 250 sexual harassment lawsuits using taxpayer money, and there was no way to find out who these Congressmen were? Would you believe me?

The truth is that the situation is as described in the question. For decades members of Congress would use your taxpayer dollars to buy their way out of bad publicity. (Read, She Said A Powerful Congressman Harassed Her. Here’s Why You Didn’t Hear Her Story.)

When a member of Congress was accused of sexual harassment, the case went to a secret court known as the Office of Compliance. Hidden from public view, Congress’s Office of Compliance paid out over $17 million for 264 settlements involving misconduct and sexual harassment.  (Read, Over the past 20 Years, Congress has paid out $17.2 million in settlements.)

It is time to Unseal the Deals!

Who are these members of Congress?

Right now it’s impossible to know, because the law demands that the settlements remained hidden in a vault.

With the stroke of a pen, Congress can identify each and every member of Congress who has used your taxpayer money to settle a sexual harassment lawsuit.

This is a bipartisan issue.

Congressman John Conyers was forced to resign when I obtained documents showing that he had settled a sexual harassment lawsuit with taxpayer dollars. I would have broken the same story if it had involved a Republican. (Read, Buzzfeed receives scoop from controversial source.)

If you’re a “#MeToo” advocate, you should want these deals unsealed.

If you’re a limited government conservative, you should want these documents unsealed.

If you’re simply a decent person, you want these documents unsealed.

Sign the petition and share on social media.

Please post a link to this petition under the hashtag #UnsealTheDeals

We deserve to know what really happened in Congress.

Sign and share on social media using the hashtag #UnsealTheDeals